Have you ever seen a new movie breathtaking teaser, which encouraged you to get out of your routine and run to a cinema? Wow, it’s so new, exciting and promising to change your attitude to the industry! You watch the movie and on 24th minute you realize that the story is old like centuries and scenario has been rewritten from something else… Nothing new except decorations.
Same here, on the financial markets.
Several pieces of puzzle for you to observe.
November 2016. Donald Trump became President of United States. His election promise was: ‘Let’s Make Oil Industry Great Again!’. One of the first persons he picked up in his cabinet was ex-CEO of Exxon Mobil. The result of the team hard work is illustrated below:
Two impressive observations about this weekly chart. Firstly, +50% in six last months! The price is above highest close in 2.5 years! Secondly, look at the speed how fast the price moved through highlighted range $60.00 - $80.00 in 2014 during sell-off. Wow, 2000 pips or -25% in 7 weeks! My point is that we could see a mirror bullish run. Try to draw a right wing of this unfinished masterpiece, wouldn’t it be symmetric?
April 2017. French presidential election. Emmanuel Macron beats Marine Le Pen. Dejavu? A male candidate representing big money sacks beats a female with doubtful reputation. Or is it a new movie???
EUR/USD reacts immediately. Below is a weekly chart. The April weekend gap will not be filled for a long long time. Tell me please, do you think these lines are parallel by a coincidence? I will tell you, what is happening now. We are entering into new long term bullish channel. Nearest target is at least to come back to lows of October 2008 - February 2009. It is 1.25000. I used to short EUR/USD from 1.60000, so please don’t tell me that 1.25000 is very high level.
September 2017. Stanley Fischer, Federal Reserve System Vice Chairman announced his resignation, leaving the Board of Governors three months before Chairwoman Yellen term expiration. Official reason is ‘personal circumstances’. I translate his message: ‘I do not want to play your games, guys. The market will not buy this stuff’. October 2017. FOMC announced three rate hikes in 2018 despite the lack of inflation. December 2017. FOMC insisted on three upcoming rate hikes, US Dollar trashed:
Look also at US Stock indices, gold, other commodities and commodity currencies, emerging market currencies. You will see the same picture everywhere. Traders and investors are searching for any asset, not to stay in cash USD, which is losing its’ value due to the Fed policy.
Do you really think that NFP report today would change anything in this overall picture?..
The greenback's destiny has been decided a long time ago.
November 2016. Donald Trump became President of United States. His election promise was: ‘Let’s Make Oil Industry Great Again!’. One of the first persons he picked up in his cabinet was ex-CEO of Exxon Mobil. The result of the team hard work is illustrated below:
Two impressive observations about this weekly chart. Firstly, +50% in six last months! The price is above highest close in 2.5 years! Secondly, look at the speed how fast the price moved through highlighted range $60.00 - $80.00 in 2014 during sell-off. Wow, 2000 pips or -25% in 7 weeks! My point is that we could see a mirror bullish run. Try to draw a right wing of this unfinished masterpiece, wouldn’t it be symmetric?
April 2017. French presidential election. Emmanuel Macron beats Marine Le Pen. Dejavu? A male candidate representing big money sacks beats a female with doubtful reputation. Or is it a new movie???
EUR/USD reacts immediately. Below is a weekly chart. The April weekend gap will not be filled for a long long time. Tell me please, do you think these lines are parallel by a coincidence? I will tell you, what is happening now. We are entering into new long term bullish channel. Nearest target is at least to come back to lows of October 2008 - February 2009. It is 1.25000. I used to short EUR/USD from 1.60000, so please don’t tell me that 1.25000 is very high level.
September 2017. Stanley Fischer, Federal Reserve System Vice Chairman announced his resignation, leaving the Board of Governors three months before Chairwoman Yellen term expiration. Official reason is ‘personal circumstances’. I translate his message: ‘I do not want to play your games, guys. The market will not buy this stuff’. October 2017. FOMC announced three rate hikes in 2018 despite the lack of inflation. December 2017. FOMC insisted on three upcoming rate hikes, US Dollar trashed:
Look also at US Stock indices, gold, other commodities and commodity currencies, emerging market currencies. You will see the same picture everywhere. Traders and investors are searching for any asset, not to stay in cash USD, which is losing its’ value due to the Fed policy.
Do you really think that NFP report today would change anything in this overall picture?..
The greenback's destiny has been decided a long time ago.
The king is dead, long live the King!
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