Will BoE MPC keep playing a dovish role?

Try to ask yourself one more question before asnwering the first one. What was the purpose of Brexit? It's almost 18 months since BoE MPC officials keep repeating the same mantra: Brexit uncertainty. An obvious sequence of historical decision to leave the Eurozone is a change in orientation of the economy from imports to exports emphasis. Ex-partners in EU become competitors to fight with for both UK and EU huge consumption markets. Keeping the pound at low levels helps also to attract wealthy americans to spend their dollars in UK. 

These are simple explanations why we still see BoE interest rates at historically low levels despite the strong performance of the british economy. Mr. Carney predicted that inflation in UK peaked recently, and MPC expects a slowdown in growth of prices. Recnt data this week is mixed with CPI, wages growth and Retail Sales higher than expected, but weaker employment figures. We still think that sterling is undervalued, but it seems like someone big fights against further pound appreciation.

We would consider shorts of GBPAUD right after rate decision on Thursday. Technical pictures are below. Key bearish technical points: weekly Bollinger Bands have bearish reversal signal (blue arrow); daily MACD lines crossed and RSI14 has bearish divergence with prices lower SMA20; H4 Ichimoku indicator is bearish.